You can follow this link (https://killboard.returnofreckoning.com ... e=standard) to see the scenarios played. Last I counted the ratios, it was about 75% destruction wins. That is an extreme imbalance. To use other games as a reference, in DotA2, when a particular hero has over a 60% win-rate, it's considered overpowered. Obviously, this isn't a 1:1 translation, but that is a very strong sniff test failure.
I don't queue for anything other than discordant if I'm solo (which is almost always), except for the weekend Scenarios. I understand that I'm solo, and don't want to run against premades constantly. That's totally fine and okay, but the weekend scenario events force me into there if I want to get the weekly rewards. Typically, of feel, this means I have to run the weekend scenario about 10-15 times to get the 500 point wins, which is not an all-together bad ratio. My suspicion, is that the reason why there are 5 wins and 10 plays required each week is because there is an expectation of a 50% win rate.
This weekend blew that expectation out of the water. I easily ran over 20, and I suspect closer to 30 instances of the Serpent's Passage scenario this weekend. It was routinely being crushed by Destruction premades, causing order to almost always just lead to surrenders. Past experiences this happens a lot at the start of the weekend, and by the end of the weekend pop rates go down because Destruction isn't queuing for it anymore as premades, so it's easier to solo queue into it and get wins, but not this time.
This extreme population imbalance, caused by the big event, highlights an issue of expected number of played scenarios to finish the weekend event. Another "feels-bad" moment was around a Fortress battle occurring. I got into an instance of Serpent's Passage, and it closed down due to imbalance because the destruction side of the match did not join. The scenario ended with order early, and the side that showed up, got 125 points. It felt punitive given the framework of the event.
So, I believe there are a couple ways to improve this overall. I believe the most straightforward and best solution is to change it from "Win the scenario 5 times with 500 points" to "Earn 2500 points in the scenario over the weekend". The objection that I see about this solution is a perspective that players aren't "earning it" or that it somehow is unfair to guarantee progression. I feel neither are valid and is counter to the design philosophy we've seen everywhere else in the game. I can see some knock-on effects that are for the good though.
- Players would surrender less.
- Much like the voting systems in the United States, it's winner-takes all, discouraging participation.
- More active player engagement in the scenario
- Knowing that all points would lead towards the weekend scenario goal would push to compete
- Less need to change scenarios that close down prematurely due to imbalances
- Players can run the objective while waiting for the other side to show up, and bank points
- More granular control for future changes.
- If it feels like the balance of desired total matches played doesn't work, the points can be easily adjusted in whatever increments desired (i.e. 100, 250, 500,...)
- Possibility for other rewards down the line like, "Use this item to give you a free 500 points towards your weekend scenario" (or whatever)
- Add a solo-only queue for the weekend scenario (similar to the discordant), or at least, add it to the list of discordant scenarios.
- Make wins that happen because of imbalances in scenarios give the side that showed up 500 points, like a surrender.
- Rework the matchmaking to more aggressively try to match solo-queuers against solo-queuers
- I like this the least as it's probably a lot of work, and it would reduce frequency significantly