Return of Reckoning

Torquemadra wrote:

Dabbart wrote:

davispeed wrote:Dafuq is.... Wait.... Green gear, u trolling right ??

Ruin gear for healing, Come on now!

Merc is for DPS

What? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =412066288 Take a look. Wp/DoK Ruin/Merc are both melee. And for the others, 1 is defensive. So yes, the green gear is comparable.

Ruin is a hybrid for WP/Dok as it always was

And Hybrid means that you are in melee. Sorry, I should of been more clear on that point. The ruin gear is the 3rd choice for those 2 classes. But that spec/gear does utilize the character being in melee. Hence the str.

For the record, I have a bunch of idea's on the Hybrid WP waiting for the discussion to be started)and then promptly ignored). I think a heal-centric frontliner could be a lot of fun.

roadkillrobin wrote:The first pecie is easy. you need to win gold bag wich is about 1/10 shot asuming there's around 12 players. then it's around 80% to get the peice you need. Then it's around 60% then it's 40% the last peice s 20% chance every 10th time you run the PQ.

1: 10% 150 min if 15 min PQ
2: 8% 187min
3: 6%, 250min
4::4%, 375min
5: 2%, 750min

229 Hours of active playing to get full Ruin.

That isn't how you work out the average time involved in getting the gear. What you should be doing is working out the probability of getting 5 pieces in 5 attempts. Then work out the probability of getting 5 pieces in 6 attempts, and then 5 pieces in 7 attempts, etc. You then find the average by adding the terms (probability x number of PQ attempts).

Symbolically, this would look like:

average number of PQs = Sum of (P(n) x n), for n = 5 to infinity.

where P(n) = the probability of getting all pieces in n PQ attempts, and
n = the number of PQ attempts.

This is an infinite sum. But the P(n) terms become vanishingly small as n approaches a large number. So the P x n terms also become vanishingly small. In practice, you would need to sum the first however many terms to get a good approximation of the average number of PQs needed.

I'm going to be busy with work over the next couple of days but, if I remember to, I will work out an answer to the sum and post it here in a few days.

You mean calculate the propabillty of getting 5 peices out of x bags until the amount reaches 99.999999999%.
The problem is that it doesn't take the amount of players participating or the rolls in mind either.
And healers allready get pretty shafted in the contribution part so we can pretty much asume they arn't getting any and need to roll 800+ to win.

From what I know, the cumulative probability of getting a loot drop with an X% chance of dropping is :

1-((1-x)^y), where x is the drop rate and y the number of attempts.

For every specific ruin piece, the drop rate is 20% (1 out of 5).

Lets see how many times you need to open a gold bag to have a 99% chance of getting a piece you need.

1st piece is a drop chance of 100. You get it in 1 attempt.

2nd piece is 80% drop. To get 99% chance at it you'd have to loot gold about 3 times.
1-((1-0.8)^3) = 0.992, so 99,2% or 124 out of 125 chances.

3rd piece is a 60% drop. Loot gold 6 times.
1-((1-0.6)^6) = 0,996.

4th piece, 40%. Loot gold 10 times.
1-((1-0.4)^10) = 0,994.

5th piece, 20%. Loot gold 21 times.
1-((1-0.2)^21) = 0,991.

So, getting a 97% (edited, 99% chance was too high due to the joint probability of the four 99% events happening in a row) chance at full ruin, you'd need to loot 41 gold bags. For most of the people it would be less.

To get 3 pieces, you need 10 gold bags. Very good loot odds imo. For the last 2, you need 31 bags. Bad odds.

Now just figure out how long it takes you on average to get a gold bag and you can know how long of a grind you potentially have.

Just remember that 99%+ is a nearly certain probability (RNGesus made sure a 100% probability is impossible...), the vast majority of people will get all pieces in much less attempts.

For example, it is likely (67%) that people would get 3 pieces in the first 4 bags. 100% chance on first bag, 80% chance for 2nd and 84% chance (2 rolls) on 3rd piece. So 1x0.8x0.84 = 0.672.

roadkillrobin wrote:You mean calculate the propabillty of getting 5 peices out of x bags until the amount reaches 99.999999999%.
The problem is that it doesn't take the amount of players participating or the rolls in mind either.
And healers allready get pretty shafted in the contribution part so we can pretty much asume they arn't getting any and need to roll 800+ to win.

And that is why you don't assume. Partner up with a DPS. you will share their contribution.

However, I have no idea if this is true, just one of those things that bounces around, but I heard that for healers on PQs you either want to go full DPs or full healing. That if you attempt to do DPS and healing, your contribution system get's screwy since it tries to place you on the DPS bracket instead of healing to determine 1-10 placement. This could be utter horseshit though.

But annaise is correct on the math. You are talking about specific variables, but first you would need the starting % to get the bags, then you adjust it accordingly I believe. Overall, yea. It CAN take forever if you are in a Pug WB at a PQ and spamming 1-2 buttons not moving.

So don't do it that way. If you have no buddies to help you farm them in a 2-3 man, then just wait until Opt-out, Master loot, and every other PQ is working. But ofc, you will still need some buddies to make it go quickly.

What you want to do is get a 2/2/2 group with everyone playing their defined roles, that gives the maximum contribution.

Eathisword wrote:From what I know, the cumulative probability of getting a loot drop with an X% chance of dropping is :

1-((1-x)^y), where x is the drop rate and y the number of attempts.

For every specific ruin piece, the drop rate is 20% (1 out of 5).

Lets see how many times you need to open a gold bag to have a 99% chance of getting a piece you need.

1st piece is a drop chance of 100. You get it in 1 attempt.

2nd piece is 80% drop. To get 99% chance at it you'd have to loot gold about 3 times.
1-((1-0.8)^3) = 0.992, so 99,2% or 124 out of 125 chances.

3rd piece is a 60% drop. Loot gold 6 times.
1-((1-0.6)^6) = 0,996.

4th piece, 40%. Loot gold 10 times.
1-((1-0.4)^10) = 0,994.

5th piece, 20%. Loot gold 21 times.
1-((1-0.2)^21) = 0,991.

So, getting a 97% (edited, 99% chance was too high due to the joint probability of the four 99% events happening in a row) chance at full ruin, you'd need to loot 41 gold bags. For most of the people it would be less.

To get 3 pieces, you need 10 gold bags. Very good loot odds imo. For the last 2, you need 31 bags. Bad odds.

Now just figure out how long it takes you on average to get a gold bag and you can know how long of a grind you potentially have.

Just remember that 99%+ is a nearly certain probability (RNGesus made sure a 100% probability is impossible...), the vast majority of people will get all pieces in much less attempts.

For example, it is likely (67%) that people would get 3 pieces in the first 4 bags. 100% chance on first bag, 80% chance for 2nd and 84% chance (2 rolls) on 3rd piece. So 1x0.8x0.84 = 0.672.

Math really isn't my streangth. But I like to solve problems.

I'd say it's about 20% chance to get a gold bag every PQ run. If you have good contr but bad rolls you don't get the bonus next time.
And you need to roll about 800+ to win moast of the time. I think 20% is a good number for this.
And you need to open 41 Gold bags??? 15min per run. Thats still 51 hours PQ grinding.

51 hours to be 97% certain to get the full set. The average case is MUCH, MUCH lower.

You mean the lucky case????

roadkillrobin wrote:You mean the lucky case????

51% is a majority. So yes, for a majority of people. 50% is avg. So yes, more than average.