Lots of Numbers: Twilight's Tide Event Scenarios

[lumpi33]

So, it's time again for some numbers

Since I had a pretty horrible experience trying to complete the live event scenario tasks, I took a deeper dive into the scenario data available from the killboard to see what's going on.

The data is from the beginning of the Twilight's Tide live event on 26th of July to 2nd of August. Only serpents passage and phoenix gate, only t4, only standard scenarios (no discordant).

So, here we go. Lets start with something simple. The winning of scenario rounds Order vs Destruction:

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T4 Serpent's Passage:
Total SCs played: 1423
  Total SCs T4 played: 1423
    Total SCs T4 STANDARD played: 1423
      Order won: 641
      Destro won: 782

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T4 Phoenix Gate:
Total SCs played: 901
  Total SCs T4 played: 901
    Total SCs T4 STANDARD played: 901
      Order won: 407
      Destro won: 494

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T4 Serpent's Passage and Phoenix Gate together:
Total SCs played: 2324
  Total SCs T4 played: 2324
    Total SCs T4 STANDARD played: 2324
      Order won: 1048
      Destro won: 1276

Next I wanted to know how many scenarios were very one-sided, where one side was completely dominating the other. Therefore I assumed that when one side had less than 1/3 of the kills of the other side, then it got dominated. With > 1/3 of kills it was kind of even then because both sides were getting a fair amount of kills.

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T4 both event SCs - domination (one side had more than 3 times the kills of the other side)
SCs played: 2324
SCs that were kind of even: 459 or 19.75% of 2324
SCs with one side dominating the other: 1865 or 80.25% of 2324
	SCs with Order dominating Destro: 801 or 34.47% of 2324
	SCs with Destro dominating Order: 1064 or 45.78% of 2324

This is honestly pretty shocking. >80% of all T4 live event SCs end with one side dominating the other!!

Since I saw a lot of guild groups in there stomping the others, the next thing I did was looking at who is playing lots of rounds and is having a high winning percentage. That's for me the groups that are playing the meat grinder in there and farming others. At least that is how it is being perceived when you are the one being farmed.

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T4 both event SCs - players with > 20 scenarios played and > 70% winning
CLASS CharacterName [Guild] RR EventScenariosPlayed WinningPercentage
SQUIG_HERDER Bombstrika [CQFD] rr81.79 243 80.25%
CHOSEN Flatlegrosdur [CQFD] rr82.65 193 79.27%
SORCERER Mouw [CQFD] rr79.64 169 76.92%
SQUIG_HERDER Cargo [Reborn] rr83 161 73.29%
ZEALOT Maledict [Reborn] rr81 142 77.46%
CHOSEN Delight [Reborn] rr83 125 74.4%
SQUIG_HERDER Githappens [Psychadelics] rr85 111 88.29%
SQUIG_HERDER Rxz [Team Spirit] rr85 107 77.57%
SHAMAN Bambino [Team Spirit] rr83 101 84.16%
WITCH_HUNTER Rankeddreamer [Retribution] rr76.01 99 71.72%
KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN Mcdonaldz [Retribution] rr83 96 76.04%
BLACK_ORC Gcp [CYA] rr82 92 75%
SHAMAN Kwassham [CQFD] rr80.71 82 79.27%
SORCERER Purple [NGE] rr57.82 82 87.8%
ZEALOT Nizzu [Team Spirit] rr87 77 87.01%
SQUIG_HERDER Kozzyh [NGE] rr76.7 73 80.82%
SORCERER Kevin [Team Spirit] rr48.62 71 88.73%
WITCH_ELF Alliyahx [Two Girls One Coupe] rr82 69 72.46%
SQUIG_HERDER Bazelini [Thank god am pretty] rr92 69 79.71%
CHOSEN Avgtankenjoyer [Thank god am pretty] rr85 67 70.15%
CHOSEN Bugimen [Starcom] rr87 66 75.76%
SHAMAN Stefanskurk [CYA] rr80.82 65 75.38%
CHOSEN Bigsiimpin [Dark Days] rr72.21 63 73.02%
ARCHMAGE Hesperiell [Cyxapuku] rr88 62 70.97%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Gwynevera [Freistaat] rr83 60 75%
SORCERER Woppra [NGE] rr81.63 60 81.67%
BLACK_GUARD Utharion [BLACK HORROR] rr57.75 59 79.66%
RUNE_PRIEST Nyzzu [Cyxapuku] rr87 58 72.41%
WHITE_LION Devo [Kraehenfeld] rr86 58 70.69%
BLACK_GUARD Ifly [Team Spirit] rr75.64 58 86.21%
SQUIG_HERDER Pennduul [Represailles] rr85.12 58 77.59%
SWORD_MASTER Altahir [Pig Stompers] rr91 57 70.18%
BLACK_GUARD Lascivious [Brutality] rr82 56 78.57%
SHAMAN Snurfz [Slaanesh Exiles] rr84 56 73.21%
WITCH_ELF Straightfish [Team Spirit] rr50.52 56 85.71%
SORCERER Sterlings [Entropy and Chaos] rr68.71 56 78.57%
SQUIG_HERDER Degondor [Da Freebootaz] rr83 54 70.37%
SQUIG_HERDER Crococopter [BLACK HORROR] rr84 54 74.07%
SQUIG_HERDER Oochoo [Pillow Talk] rr76.96 53 73.58%
SQUIG_HERDER Gitrol [Lords of the Locker Room] rr70.45 53 81.13%
ZEALOT Zicc [Hand of Blood] rr83 52 71.15%
ARCHMAGE Tharo [Pax Mortis II] rr82 52 71.15%
ZEALOT Whysoseriouss [NGE] rr83 51 84.31%
SHADOW_WARRIOR Liray [Mortem] rr84 50 72%
RUNE_PRIEST Body [Retribution] rr83 50 94%
MAGUS Boruta [Lords of the Locker Room] rr56.24 50 72%
RUNE_PRIEST Mrmojo [Retribution] rr84 49 81.63%
BLACK_GUARD Worstnightmeh [Dark Days] rr64.84 49 73.47%
KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN Epicci [primus inter pares] rr77.55 49 75.51%
RUNE_PRIEST Septon [KUNG FU] rr81.76 49 75.51%
CHOPPA Mooorda [Like it Hard] rr79.29 48 75%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Xxxoo [FMJ] rr88 47 80.85%
CHOSEN Rhaem [Odyssey] rr80.83 47 72.34%
KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN Baiken [KUNG FU] rr66.37 46 82.61%
BRIGHT_WIZARD Holdmytea [XREAL] rr82 45 71.11%
SHADOW_WARRIOR Kajtarn [Familjen] rr87 44 70.45%
WARRIOR_PRIEST Onlyhealer [Retribution] rr83 44 84.09%
CHOSEN Thewarden [Art of Execution] rr68.93 44 90.91%
BLACK_ORC Knifeparty [NGE] rr66.14 43 88.37%
ZEALOT Drunkey [Freistaat] rr83 42 73.81%
SLAYER Obfuscate [KUNG FU] rr81.55 42 83.33%
WHITE_LION Ifetchyoutoo [Not Good Enough] rr82 41 78.05%
SHAMAN Codeplex [Bene Gesserit] rr67.5 40 72.5%
WARRIOR_PRIEST Pontefico [Retribution] rr83 39 79.49%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Dogshild [] rr83 38 71.05%
ARCHMAGE Llondo [Dark Dayz] rr86 37 75.68%
MAGUS Jolt [Exodus] rr84 37 70.27%
IRON_BREAKER Pistachio [Not Good Enough] rr69.81 37 72.97%
ZEALOT Jelie [VII] rr82.97 37 70.27%
RUNE_PRIEST Legorunes [Retribution] rr71.58 36 77.78%
SHAMAN Hiphop [] rr83 36 77.78%
SHADOW_WARRIOR Nokhi [Not Good Enough] rr81 36 72.22%
SHAMAN Oidonthitme [Exodus] rr86 36 80.56%
SQUIG_HERDER Karavorton [L N M] rr78.78 36 83.33%
CHOPPA Gakixx [Dark Days] rr80.22 36 77.78%
WARRIOR_PRIEST Rombzor [Mother Russia] rr82 35 71.43%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Macaulay [Entropy and Chaos] rr71.09 35 71.43%
SHADOW_WARRIOR Ashoris [Kraehenfeld] rr85 35 71.43%
SHAMAN Taco [Strife] rr80.82 34 70.59%
CHOPPA Kranyel [Freistaat] rr75.03 34 82.35%
KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN Anoya [XREAL] rr73.94 34 70.59%
MARAUDER Ywhhi [NGE] rr81 34 88.24%
ZEALOT Menohealzgood [NGE] rr51.44 34 73.53%
SHAMAN Groutch [Death Korp] rr76.97 34 70.59%
RUNE_PRIEST Anoxee [XREAL] rr82 34 70.59%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Naggarina [Darkness and Ruin] rr80.79 33 93.94%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Rombzorr [MotherRussia] rr80.94 33 81.82%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Competition [Lords of the Locker Room] rr60.91 33 75.76%
SQUIG_HERDER Paura [RooR] rr86 32 78.12%
SORCERER Blackaddera [L N M] rr86 32 90.62%
SHAMAN Atrosity [Pillow Talk] rr60.87 31 70.97%
KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN Fray [XREAL] rr83 31 74.19%
SHADOW_WARRIOR Catchmyarrows [Retribution] rr80.39 31 77.42%
ARCHMAGE Pungamage [Retribution] rr77.06 31 87.1%
IRON_BREAKER Basilisk [KUNG FU] rr46.42 31 74.19%
WARRIOR_PRIEST Znahar [Retribution] rr84 31 74.19%
ZEALOT Heallogique [Croix de Bois] rr82 31 77.42%
SHADOW_WARRIOR Vendeta [Pig Stompers] rr85 30 76.67%
SLAYER Hirzodrin [Pig Stompers] rr90 30 73.33%
BLACK_GUARD Termund [Novus Ordo Seclorum] rr88 30 73.33%
SORCERER Tchire [CQFD] rr81 30 83.33%
SHAMAN Jelielino [VII] rr85 30 73.33%
SHADOW_WARRIOR Rathsara [Retribution] rr80 30 83.33%
ZEALOT Kyre [] rr83 30 83.33%
SHAMAN Plens [] rr82 30 83.33%
BLACK_GUARD Chinchompa [Freistaat] rr82.17 30 86.67%
WARRIOR_PRIEST Rinen [Tuff Bois] rr84 29 72.41%
SWORD_MASTER Kalimaxos [Retribution] rr74 29 79.31%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Xurious [NGE] rr87 29 89.66%
SQUIG_HERDER Sacaspore [CQFD] rr56.1 29 72.41%
BLACK_GUARD Pourlesrousses [L N M] rr62.38 29 82.76%
BLACK_GUARD Blackpig [Destro Tavern] rr48.97 29 82.76%
SORCERER Mistra [NO RULES] rr71.93 28 75%
WHITE_LION Leeto [Retribution] rr85 28 71.43%
SORCERER Astroice [] rr91 28 71.43%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Elcie [] rr72 27 74.07%
CHOPPA Airplanee [Starcom] rr85 27 70.37%
BLACK_GUARD Ruadeth [Team Spirit] rr85 27 77.78%
CHOSEN Qdodger [NGE] rr83 27 88.89%
SWORD_MASTER Nadrzyosei [Atsui Mleko] rr79.07 27 74.07%
WHITE_LION Xbrodda [XREAL] rr83 26 73.08%
WHITE_LION Kyrro [Retribution] rr82 26 100%
MARAUDER Purgen [Starcom] rr86 26 88.46%
WHITE_LION Tiabeanie [KUNG FU] rr82 26 88.46%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Synisthra [Thank god am pretty] rr82 26 80.77%
KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN Thiberica [Cross] rr83 25 76%
SORCERER Edennae [L N M] rr87 24 95.83%
SQUIG_HERDER Mhe [Croix de Bois] rr81 24 75%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Emiko [MotherRussia] rr72.08 24 75%
SLAYER Nika [Pig Stompers] rr84 24 79.17%
SLAYER Grzegorz [Cyxapuku] rr84 23 73.91%
ARCHMAGE Cyryliei [Retribution] rr79 23 82.61%
IRON_BREAKER Mrjones [Retribution] rr79.18 22 72.73%
SHADOW_WARRIOR Elorea [Old School] rr82 22 77.27%
WHITE_LION Hicane [Les Dragons de Kalidors] rr90 22 72.73%
ZEALOT Nerul [L N M] rr83 22 72.73%
SQUIG_HERDER Teefz [Exodus] rr94 21 71.43%
KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN Yurc [Retribution] rr81 21 85.71%
WARRIOR_PRIEST Tagy [How I Met Your Mother] rr82 21 76.19%
ZEALOT Boogai [] rr80 21 71.43%
SORCERER Morathi [Death Knights] rr78 21 80.95%
ARCHMAGE Illumia [Gimle] rr85 21 80.95%
ZEALOT Cmapywka [SALTY CHEESE] rr72 21 71.43%
DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE Nemeil [Starcom] rr90 21 76.19%

Well yeah, not really surprising. The meat grinder in there is real. There are guild groups with 200 rounds played and almost 80% win percentage. Every time they were playing 12 on the other side had to wait until it's finally over. And that's only ONE guild group. Look at how many there are. You can only guess how painful it must be for new players and casual players to actually trying to get a win. This while we all know how the scenario manager is working: creating new instances for groups and filling up the enemies with pugs...

This was actually already what I wanted to know.

Now some other stats just to look through:

Spoiler:

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T4 Event SCs - different characters counted so far (one player might have played several characters):
3616

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T4 Event SCs - careers count (how often the careers were seen in all event SC rounds):
1.SHAMAN: 4131
2.WARRIOR_PRIEST: 3377
3.SQUIG_HERDER: 3275
4.CHOSEN: 3149
5.SHADOW_WARRIOR: 2927
6.KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN: 2845
7.DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE: 2824
8.SWORD_MASTER: 2729
9.ZEALOT: 2722
10.RUNE_PRIEST: 2682
11.SORCERER: 2514
12.WHITE_LION: 2440
13.ARCHMAGE: 2209
14.WITCH_HUNTER: 2119
15.BRIGHT_WIZARD: 2090
16.MARAUDER: 1890
17.BLACK_ORC: 1848
18.CHOPPA: 1801
19.BLACK_GUARD: 1754
20.IRON_BREAKER: 1700
21.SLAYER: 1693
22.WITCH_ELF: 1569
23.ENGINEER: 1429
24.MAGUS: 632

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T4 Event SCs - career win rate (percentage, since destro won more scenarios in total their careers have also higher win rates)
1.ZEALOT: 62.71
2.SHAMAN: 56.79
3.CHOSEN: 56.72
4.BLACK_GUARD: 56.04
5.DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE: 55.35
6.SQUIG_HERDER: 54.05
7.SORCERER: 53.14
8.ARCHMAGE: 50.84
9.RUNE_PRIEST: 50.63
10.BLACK_ORC: 50.54
11.KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN: 49.53
12.CHOPPA: 47.53
13.WITCH_ELF: 45.57
14.SWORD_MASTER: 45.44
15.WARRIOR_PRIEST: 45.16
16.SHADOW_WARRIOR: 44.79
17.SLAYER: 43.65
18.IRON_BREAKER: 43.29
19.WHITE_LION: 42.42
20.MARAUDER: 41.69
21.BRIGHT_WIZARD: 41.2
22.MAGUS: 40.19
23.WITCH_HUNTER: 31.29
24.ENGINEER: 28.41

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T4 Event SCs - career kill damage of total damage (percentage):
1.SQUIG_HERDER: 56.34
2.WITCH_ELF: 46.25
3.SHADOW_WARRIOR: 36.57
4.CHOPPA: 35.6
5.WITCH_HUNTER: 35.1
6.DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE: 33.91
7.MARAUDER: 33.84
8.WHITE_LION: 33.04
9.SORCERER: 32.71
10.SHAMAN: 31.93
11.SLAYER: 31.51
12.MAGUS: 30.49
13.ARCHMAGE: 28.19
14.WARRIOR_PRIEST: 27.26
15.ZEALOT: 27.25
16.BRIGHT_WIZARD: 26.49
17.ENGINEER: 22.59
18.BLACK_ORC: 21.59
19.BLACK_GUARD: 20.98
20.CHOSEN: 20.83
21.RUNE_PRIEST: 20.53
22.SWORD_MASTER: 17.25
23.IRON_BREAKER: 16.29
24.KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN: 15.28

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T4 Event SCs - average death blows (total death blows / total characters counted):
1.SORCERER: 2.6
2.SQUIG_HERDER: 2.59
3.SHADOW_WARRIOR: 2.16
4.CHOPPA: 1.85
5.BRIGHT_WIZARD: 1.82
6.SLAYER: 1.56
7.WHITE_LION: 1.55
8.WITCH_ELF: 1.51
9.MAGUS: 1.38
10.MARAUDER: 1.31
11.WITCH_HUNTER: 0.95
12.ENGINEER: 0.78
13.CHOSEN: 0.61
14.BLACK_ORC: 0.49
15.SWORD_MASTER: 0.48
16.BLACK_GUARD: 0.48
17.IRON_BREAKER: 0.42
18.KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN: 0.36
19.DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE: 0.35
20.SHAMAN: 0.3
21.WARRIOR_PRIEST: 0.29
22.ARCHMAGE: 0.24
23.ZEALOT: 0.06
24.RUNE_PRIEST: 0.04

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T4 Event SCs - average deaths (total career deaths / total characters counted):
1.ZEALOT: 0.558
2.SHAMAN: 0.578
3.KNIGHT_OF_THE_BLAZING_SUN: 0.622
4.BLACK_GUARD: 0.631
5.CHOSEN: 0.639
6.IRON_BREAKER: 0.731
7.RUNE_PRIEST: 0.745
8.ARCHMAGE: 0.761
9.SWORD_MASTER: 0.826
10.BLACK_ORC: 0.846
11.SQUIG_HERDER: 0.887
12.DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE: 0.902
13.SORCERER: 0.952
14.SHADOW_WARRIOR: 1.058
15.WARRIOR_PRIEST: 1.091
16.MAGUS: 1.123
17.BRIGHT_WIZARD: 1.312
18.WITCH_ELF: 1.41
19.MARAUDER: 1.449
20.WITCH_HUNTER: 1.543
21.CHOPPA: 1.544
22.ENGINEER: 1.632
23.WHITE_LION: 1.634
24.SLAYER: 1.663

Please don't force people to join that scenarios for the live event. The current state of them is HORRIBLE. Please reduce the amount of participations needed from 10 to 3.

Last time when I did the scenario evaluation the domination rate was a lot lower - still high though (viewtopic.php?p=516499). But the 80% domination this time is INSANE.

It's not working guys... you can't put guild premades against new/casuals/pugs. It's awful.

My suggestion would be:
- either reduce the allowed group size for scenarios to 3 (that's basically half of a 2/2/2 comp) to have more mixing of them or
- get rid of groups in scenarios and discordant overall. No more queuing as group. Then add automated comp building like you did for ranked scenarios. Done.

Cheers.

[Rotgut]

RUNE_PRIEST Mrmojo [Retribution] rr84 49 81.63%

Nice

[forsa]

RUNE_PRIEST Mrmojo [Retribution] rr84 49 81.63%

Nice

T4 Event SCs - career win rate (percentage, since destro won more scenarios in total their careers have also higher win rates)
1.ZEALOT: 62.71
2.SHAMAN: 56.79
3.CHOSEN: 56.72
4.BLACK_GUARD: 56.04
5.DISCIPLE_OF_KHAINE: 55.35
6.SQUIG_HERDER: 54.05

Even betta

[Akalukz]

I know a ton of people who dont' even bother doing events anymore because how tied it is the terrible scenario system. Events are imo actually hurting the server. It may draw in new players or returning players then they force them into the absolute worst part of the game and they remember why they quit doing scenarios or quit the game entirely.

It's sad honestly, this has been going on for years.

[calipso]

Matchmaker is non existent. Constantly matches 2 premades vs 1+pugs. One realm has been obviously over stacking premades on a daily basis. But instead of fixing it, Dev is only adding barriers to make scs less attractive and a pure meat grinder. Buff added is still a joke, yet to been seen making any impact as a come back. It will get even worse by the look of it, but hey! As long as the double premades have their farm everything is ok.

[tromat]

Matchmaker is non existent. Constantly matches 2 premades vs 1+pugs. One realm has been obviously over stacking premades on a daily basis. But instead of fixing it, Dev is only adding barriers to make scs less attractive and a pure meat grinder. Buff added is still a joke, yet to been seen making any impact as a come back. It will get even worse by the look of it, but hey! As long as the double premades have their farm everything is ok.

Don't forget you can do it in Discordant now !

[Rotgut]

And Devs are working on the SC Matchmaker, it will come

[agemennon675]

"This is honestly pretty shocking. >80% of all T4 live event SCs end with one side dominating the other!!" Not surprising at all this is the intentional outcome of giving premades prio in scenario queue

[calipso]

Matchmaker is non existent. Constantly matches 2 premades vs 1+pugs. One realm has been obviously over stacking premades on a daily basis. But instead of fixing it, Dev is only adding barriers to make scs less attractive and a pure meat grinder. Buff added is still a joke, yet to been seen making any impact as a come back. It will get even worse by the look of it, but hey! As long as the double premades have their farm everything is ok.

Don't forget you can do it in Discordant now !

This is not only event related, happens day after day in no- Discordant scs. We are usually 3, so personally I dont do Discordant

[TrainInVain]

I'd be curious to see if the rvr win/loss ratio is reasonably close to being inverted of the Scenarios. This is a generality on my part, but the side losing in rvr tends to have more organization in sc.